Covid-19 monitoring report: low level of criticality. Slight increase in cases in some areas

The latest monitoring report on the coronavirus situation in Italy, regarding the June 8-14 period, drafted by the health ministry, the Higher Health Institute (ISS) and the “Cabina di Regia” coordination panel, said Friday that the general picture of Sars-CoV-2 transmission and its impact in Italy was positive, but there are some warning signs that call for rigorous respect of the measures necessary to reduce the risk of transmission, such as individual hygiene and physical distancing.

Key points

• The analysis of the data regards the June 8-14 period, which followed the third phase of reopening of activities on June 3, 2020. Given the time that goes from exposition to the pathogen and the development of symptoms and the diagnosis and subsequent notification, it is likely that the cases reported this week regard infections that took place 2-3 weeks before, that is during the second phase of reopenings (between May 18 and June 1, 2020). Some of the cases identified via screening, however, could date back to a previous period.
• On the whole, the general picture of Sars-CoV-2 transmission and its impact in Italy remains at a low level of criticality, with a culmulative incidence of the last 14 days (period June 8-June 14) of 6.03 per 100,000 inhabitants.Nevertheless, a slight increase in cases was observed at the national level with respect to the previous week, found both in the surveillance flow coordinated by the health ministry and published on the site of the Civil Protection Department and in the surveillance flow coordinated by the Higher Health Institute. The absence of signals of health services being overwhelmed continued.
• In some regions a high number of cases continues to be reported. This calls for caution as it denotes that the circulation of the SARS-CoV-2 is still at a significant level in some parts of the country.
• New cases of infection were diagnosed throughout the peninsular during the monitoring week, with an increase in cases with respect to the previous monitoring week in several regions/autonomous provinces. The Rt infection index remained below 1 nationwide and in almost all of Italy’s regions and autonomous provinces.
• Although this can partially be attributed to intense screening and the investigation of cases, with the identification and monitoring of close contracts, these signals must not be underestimated as they show that the COVID-19 epidemic is not over and that the epidemiological situation is extremely fluid.
• It is essential to stay focused and continue to strengthen the “testing-tracing-tracking” activities in order to be able to quickly identify all the potential transmission hotspots and keep control of the epidemic. It is also fundamentally important to keep high the general population’s awareness of the fluidity of the epidemiological situation and the importance of rigorous respect of the measures necessary to reduce the risk of transmission, such as individual hygiene and physical distancing.

• Italy’s lockdown measures made it effectively possible to control SARS-CoV-2 infection across the national territory, albeit in a situation of persistent widespread transmission of the virus, with widely different incidences among the 21 Italian regions/autonomous provinces.
• The situation described in the report, prevalently regarding the second phase of transition, is positive on the whole, but there are some warning signs of transmission. The report describes an epidemiological situation that is still fluid and calls for rigorous respect of the measures required to reduce the risk of transmission, such as individual hygiene and physical distancing.
• It is also necessary to maintain a high level of resilience of the regional services in order to facilitate awareness among the population, actively seek out and diagnose potential cases, isolate confirmed cases and put close contacts into quarantine. These actions are fundamentally important in order to control transmission and rapidly identity and address eventual new outbreaks of the epidemic.